Pricing notesLowest exact clean sell in, highest exact clean buy order out.Show

Backpack.tf pricing: Unique and Strange input acquisition uses the lowest exact, filtered sell listing. Output liquidation uses the highest exact, filtered buy order. Missing sell listings stay unquoted and are excluded from profitability calculations.

Decorated weapon and War Paint pricing: use Steam USD mode for wear-bearing items such as the Pyroland weapon skins and War Paints. backpack.tf condition markets can be thin or mismatched, so verify the exact Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, or Battle Scarred condition.

Prices checked Fri, 04 Sep 2026 03:51:08 GMT

Opportunity Board

TheoreticalStrange + Non-Strange

Non-Strange and Strange pairs with fully quoted outcomes. Cost multiplies one cheapest exact ask by ten; listing depth, availability, fees and slippage are not modeled.

Profitable opportunities first · ranked by ROI

Showing 5 of 29 matching opportunities

Research ranking only: verify that ten eligible inputs can actually be purchased at the shown price before trading. Outputs use the highest filtered buy order; fees are excluded.

Collection	Trade-up	Quality	Quoted ask ×10	EV	P/L	ROI	Win %	Cover
Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	35.50 ref	48.10 ref	+12.60 ref	35.5%	40%	5/5
Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	1 key + 3.37 ref	1 key + 27.11 ref	+23.74 ref	35.1%	33%	3/3
Winter 2025 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	42.20 ref	56.19 ref	+13.99 ref	33.2%	75%	4/4
Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection	Commando → Assassin	Non-Strange	1 key + 55.67 ref	2 keys + 27.70 ref	+36.36 ref	30.3%	33%	3/3
Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection	Assassin → Elite	Non-Strange	5 keys + 7.15 ref	6 keys + 26.17 ref	+1 key + 19.01 ref	25.3%	50%	2/2

Contract bench

TF2 Trade-Up Calculator

Custom mix

Search the full catalog and mix collections using ten items of the same rarity.

Mixed collections

The first item sets the rarity. Each input contributes 10% to its collection.

Input rarityItem qualityDefault wearUsed when adding decorated weapons or War Paints.

Type an item name to start your custom contract.

Crate: 0/10

Eligible catalog quotes: 1132/1760

Contract intelligence

Live EV model

Input cost

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0/10 items

Expected value

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0/0 outputs quoted

Expected P/L

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ROI

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Chance of profit

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Of quoted outcomes

Break-even output

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Output must sell above this

Outcome table

Collection-weighted across 0 outputs

Add eligible inputs to see the collection-weighted output pool.

Simulation runs

SeedLoad exactly 10 quoted inputs to simulate.

Opportunity Board

TF2 Trade-Up Calculator

Contract intelligence

Outcome table

Methodology & data notes